Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
