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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.